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Marcel Ortgiese

Reader in Probability

Probability laboratory at Bath
Department of Mathematical Sciences
University of Bath


New position available: 3-year postdoc position working on the EPSRC project "Interplay between geometry and randomness in fitness landscapes for expanding populations". Click here to find out more and apply.


Email: m.ortgiese { at }
Office: 4W 3.40
Phone: +44 1225 383618
Address: Department of Mathematical Sciences
University of Bath
Claverton Down
United Kingdom


Winter 2023/24 MA30125 Markov processes and applications (Moodle - Bath users only)
Summer 2022/23 MA40239 Discrete Probability (Moodle - Bath users only)
Winter 2022/23 MA30125 Markov processes and applications
Summer 2021/22 MA40239 Discrete Probability
Winter 2021/22 MA30125 Markov processes and applications
Summer 2020/21 MA40239 Discrete Probability
Winter 2020/21 MA50196 Financial Derivatives
Summer 2019/20 MA40239 Discrete Probability
Winter 2019/20 MA20224 Probability 2A
Summer 2018/19 MA40239 Discrete Probability
Winter 2018/19 MA20224 Probability 2A
Winter 2017/18 MA50196 Financial Derivatives
Winter 2016/17 MA50196 Financial Derivatives

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  1. The contact process on dynamical random trees with degree dependence.
    with Natalia Cardona-Tobón, Marco Seiler and Anja Sturm. Preprint, arXiv:2406.12689, 19 June 2024.
  2. Cluster sizes in subcritical soft Boolean models.
    with Benedikt Jahnel and Lukas Lüchtrath. Preprint, arXiv:2404.13730, 23 April 2024.
  3. The Contact Process on a Graph Adapting to the Infection.
    with John Fernley and Peter Mörters. Preprint, arXiv:2312.06251, 12 December 2023.
  4. The contact process with fitness on random trees.
    with Natalia Cardona-Tobón. Preprint, arXiv:2110.14537, 21 November 2023.
  5. The infinite rate symbiotic branching model: from discrete to continuous space.
    with Matthias Hammer. Preprint arXiv:1508.07826, 2015.

In Press

  1. The maximal degree in random recursive graphs with random weights.
    with Bas Lodewijks. To appear in Annals of Applied Probability, arXiv:2007.05438, 12 Dec 2023.


  1. Fine asymptotics for the maximum degree in weighted recursive trees with bounded random weights.
    with Laura Eslava and Bas Lodewijks. Stochastic Processes and Applications 158, 505 - 569, 2023.
  2. Voter models on subcritical scale-free random graphs.
    with John Fernley. Random Structures and Algorithms, 62(2), 376 - 429, 2023
  3. The symbiotic branching model: duality and interfaces.
    with Jochen Blath. In "Probabilistic Structures in Evolution" (E. Baake and A. Wakolbinger, eds.), pp. 311-336, EMS Press, Berlin, 2021.
  4. Entrance laws for annihilating Brownian motions and the continuous-space voter model.
    with Matthias Hammer and Florian Völlering.
    Stochastic Processes and their Applications, 34, 240-264, 2021.
  5. A phase transition for preferential attachment models with additive fitness.
    with Bas Lodewijks. Electronic Journal of Probability, 25, Paper No. 146, 2020.
  6. Fluctuations in a general preferential attachment model via Stein's method.
    with Carina Betken and Hanna Döring. Random Structures & Algorithms, 55(4), 808-830, 2019.
  7. Near critical preferential attachment networks have small giant components.
    with Maren Eckhoff and Peter Mörters. Journal of Statistical Physics, 173(3), 663-703, 2018.
  8. Local neighbourhoods for first-passage percolation on the configuration model.
    with Steffen Dereich. Journal of Statistical Physics, 173(3-4), 485-501, 2018.
  9. A new look at duality for the symbiotic branching model.
    with Matthias Hammer and Florian Völlering. Annals of Probability, 46(5), 2800-2862, 2018.
  10. Scaling limit and ageing for branching random walk in Pareto environment.
    with Matthew I. Roberts. Annales de l'Institut Henri Poincaré: Probab. et Stat. 54(3), 1291-1313, 2018.
  11. One-point localization for branching random walk in Pareto environment.
    with Matthew I. Roberts. Electronic Journal of Probability, 22, paper no. 6, 2017.
  12. Intermittency for branching random walk in Pareto environment
    with Matthew I. Roberts. Annals of Probability, 44(3): 2198-2263, 2016.
  13. The scaling limit of the interface of the continuous-space symbiotic branching model
    with Jochen Blath and Matthias Hammer. Annals of Probability, 44(2): 807-866, 2016.
  14. The largest strongly connected component in the cyclical pedigree model of Wakeley et al.
    with Jochen Blath and Stephan Kadow. Theoretical Population Biology, 98: 28-37, 2014. [Prepint@arXiv:1405.7276]
  15. Robust analysis of preferential attachment models with fitness
    with Steffen Dereich. Combinatorics, Probability and Computing, 23 (03): 386-411, 2014.
  16. The near-critical scaling window for directed polymers on disordered trees
    with Tom Alberts. Electronic Journal of Probability, 18, Article 19, 2013.
  17. Moments of recurrence times for Markov chains
    with Frank Aurzada, Hanna Döring, Michael Scheutzow. Electronic Communications in Probability, 16:296-303, 2011.
  18. Ageing in the parabolic Anderson model
    with Peter Mörters, Nadia Sidorova. Annales de l'Institut Henri Poincaré: Probab. et Stat., 47(4): 969-1000, 2011.
  19. Minimal supporting subtrees for the free energy of polymers on disordered trees
    with Peter Mörters. Journal of Mathematical Physics 49, 2008 (abstract).
  20. Small value probabilities via the branching tree heuristic
    with Peter Mörters. Bernoulli, 14(1): 277-299, 2008.


PhD Thesis

  • Stochastic processes in random environment
    PhD, University of Bath, 2009.
My articles on: arxiv, MathSciNet, Google Scholar, Orcid, University of Bath researchportal.

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Research Group

Current members:

PhD students Former members

PhD students Postdocs

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