###################################################### # # # Simple climate predictor # # ======================== # # # ###################################################### # # University of Bath, UK # ====================== # #################################################################### # # This program implements the basic energy balance model # to calculate the temperature T of the Earth for # a given level of Carbon Dioxide C # # It implements two models # # In the first (static) model the albedo a (reflectivity) of the # Earth does not depend upon T. We look at the changes # of T consistent with the levels of CO2 currently # being put into the atmosphere. # # In the second (dynamic) model we let the albedo depend upon T # due to melting of the Earths ice, and investigate possible tipping # points in the Earth's cclimate for large changes in the Carbon Dioxide # levels # ###################################################################### # # Variables # ========= # # T: Temperature # e: emmisivity (transparency of the atmosphere) # co2: Carbon Dioxide level # a: albedo (refelctivity of the Earth) # s: Mean solar radiation 342 W m^{-2} # lambd: Response rate of the climate # sigma: The Stefan-Boltzman constant 5.67e-8 # ############################################################ # # The program solves the (dynamic) energy balance equation # # T_t = lambd ( (1-a(T))S - e(co2)*sig*T^4 ) # ############################################################# # # In this model a(T) depends on T due to melting ice # and e(co2) on co2 due to the Greenhouse effect. # ############################################################# #!/usr/bin/env python3 # -*- coding: utf-8 -*- """ Created on Fri Aug 20 11:26:59 2021 @author: yz3259 """ ######################################################### # # You need these libraries to be able to run the code # ######################################################### import tkinter as tk import numpy as np from scipy.integrate import odeint import time import matplotlib.pyplot as plt from PIL import Image, ImageTk import os ########################################################## w,h = (1000, 800) frameW = w//3-20 frameH = h-20 canvasW = 2*w//3-10 canvasH = frameH//2 ############################################################################## # # Physical constants # ================== # ############################################################################## sigma, tlw,tsw, s, T0,T1 = (5.67037*10**(-8),0.2,0.9,342,237.15,237.15) e = 0.01 def create_circle(x, y, r, canvasName,col = "black"): #center coordinates, radius x0 = x - r y0 = y - r x1 = x + r y1 = y + r return canvasName.create_oval(x0, y0, x1, y1,fill=col,outline=col) ################################################################################# # # The Carbon Dioxide level changes the emmisivity due to Green House effects # # e = 0.633 - 7.1*10^(-5)*co2 # co2: 250 to 1000 ppm # ################################################################################## ############################################## # # Static energy balance # ############################################## def eqn1(co2, a, s, sigma): #a, s, e, sigma = parms e = 0.633 - 7.1*10**(-5)*co2 Ts = ((1-a)*s /(e* sigma)) **(1/4) return Ts ############################################## def s_shape(T,s,sigma): return (1-at(T))*s/(sigma*(T**4)) ############################################################## # # Albedo a as a function of temperature T # This varies due to the melting of the Earth's ice. # ############################################################## def at(T): return 0.495 - 0.205*np.tanh(0.133*(T-275)) ############################################################## def et(t): return 0.65 - 0.1*t def et_up(t): return 0.1 + 0.1*t def eqn2( T,e, s, sigma): # s, e, sigma = parms dTdt = 10*((1.0-at(T))*s - e* sigma * (T**4)) #+np.random.normal(0, 1) return dTdt ############################################################## # # Dynamic energy balance (differential equations) # ############################################################## def eqn3( T,t, s, sigma,lamd,down=True): # s, e, sigma = parms if down: dTdt = lamd*((1.0-at(T))*s - et(t)* sigma * (T**4) )#+ np.random.normal(0,1) else: dTdt = lamd*((1.0-at(T))*s - et_up(t)* sigma * (T**4) ) return dTdt ################################################## ################################################## # # Set up the user interface # ################################################## root = tk.Tk() root.title("Simple Climate Models") root.geometry(f"{w}x{h}") root.configure(background='silver') # bg= ImageTk.PhotoImage(file="plot.png") choice = tk.Frame(root,width = frameW, height = frameH, bd = 0,bg = "lightgray") choice.grid(row=0,column = 0, padx = 5, pady = 5) graph = tk.Frame(root,width =canvasW, height =canvasH,bd=0,bg = "lightgray") graph.grid(row=0,column = 1,padx=5,pady = 5) title = tk.Label(graph,text = "CO2 Concentration in Atmosphere",font = ('arial', 14, 'bold')).grid(row=0,column=0) canvas1 = tk.Canvas(graph,width =canvasW-80, height =canvasH-20, bg = "ivory") canvas1.grid(row=1,column = 0,padx=5,pady = 5) # # image = Image.open('CO2.gif') # # gif1 = image.resize((20,20),Image.ANTIALIAS) ##################################################################### # # This is the image of the CO2 rise over the last hundrad years # ##################################################################### gif1 = ImageTk.PhotoImage(file = 'CO2.png') # put gif image on canvas # pic's upper left corner (NW) on the canvas is at x=50 y=10 canvas1.create_image(0,0,image=gif1, anchor=tk.NW) canvas2 = tk.Canvas(graph,width =canvasW-80, height =canvasH-20, bg = "ivory") canvas2.grid(row=2,column = 0,padx=5,pady = 5) ch1 = tk.Frame(choice,width = frameW,height = frameH//3,bd = 0, bg = "ivory") ch1.grid(row=0,column= 0,padx = 5, pady = 5 ) ch3 = tk.Frame(choice,width = frameW,height = frameH//3,bd = 0, bg = "ivory") ch3.grid(row=2,column= 0,padx = 5, pady = 5 ) fontsize =11 # # Slide bars for Model 1 # string_label = tk.Label(ch1, text=" A Simple Energy Balance Model",font = ('arial', fontsize, 'bold')).grid(row=0, column=0, pady=5, padx = 5) string_label = tk.Label(ch1, text="The albedo: a",font = ('arial', fontsize)).grid(row=1, column=0, pady=5, padx = 5) par_a = tk.Scale(ch1, from_=0, to =1,font = ('arial', fontsize),tickinterval= 0.5,resolution= 0.01,orient = tk.HORIZONTAL,width = 10,length = 100) par_a.set(0.31) par_a.grid(row=1,column=1,columnspan=5,padx = 5,pady=5) string_label = tk.Label(ch1, text="The lowest value of CO2 (ppm)",font = ('arial', fontsize)).grid(row=2, column=0, pady=5, padx = 5) par_ts = tk.Scale(ch1, from_=200, to =430,font = ('arial', fontsize),orient = tk.HORIZONTAL,width = 10,length = 100) par_ts.set(280) par_ts.grid(row=2,column=2,columnspan=5,padx = 5,pady=5) string_label = tk.Label(ch1, text="The highest value of CO2 (ppm)",font = ('arial', fontsize)).grid(row=3, column=0, pady=5, padx = 5) par_tl = tk.Scale(ch1, from_=par_ts.get(), to =1000,font = ('arial', fontsize),orient = tk.HORIZONTAL,width = 10,length = 100) par_tl.set(430) par_tl.grid(row=3,column=2,columnspan=5,padx = 5,pady=5) # # Slide bars for model 2 #parm set 1 # string_label = tk.Label(ch3, text=" A more complex Model with changing albedo ",font = ('arial', fontsize, 'bold')).grid(row=0, column=0,columnspan=2, pady=5, padx = 2) #string_label = tk.Label(ch3, text=" a",font = ('arial', 14, 'bold')).grid(row=1, column=0, pady=5, padx = 5) #par_a11 = tk.Scale(ch3, from_=0, to =1,font = ('arial', 14, 'bold'),resolution= 0.01,orient = tk.HORIZONTAL,width = 10,length = 150) #par_a11.set(0.31) #par_a11.grid(row=1,column=1,columnspan=4,padx = 5,pady=5) string_label = tk.Label(ch3, text="cimate response rate choice 1",font = ('arial', fontsize)).grid(row=1, column=0, pady=5, padx = 2) par_1 = tk.Scale(ch3, from_=1, to= 500,font = ('arial', fontsize),orient = tk.HORIZONTAL,width = 10,length = 100) par_1.set(1) par_1.grid(row=1,column=1,padx = 5,pady=10) string_label = tk.Label(ch3, text="cimate response rate choice 2",font = ('arial', fontsize)).grid(row=2, column=0, pady=5, padx = 2) par_2 = tk.Scale(ch3, from_=1, to =500,font = ('arial', fontsize),orient = tk.HORIZONTAL,width = 10,length = 100) par_2.set(10) par_2.grid(row=2,column=1,padx = 5,pady=10) string_label = tk.Label(ch3, text="cimate response rate choice 3",font = ('arial', fontsize)).grid(row=3, column=0, pady=5, padx = 2) par_3 = tk.Scale(ch3, from_=1, to =500,font = ('arial', fontsize),orient = tk.HORIZONTAL,width = 10,length = 100) par_3.set(500) par_3.grid(row=3,column=1,padx = 2,pady=10) def slide(): global a, sigma, s, e #my_label = tk.Label(choice,text=angle1.get()) #my_label.grid(row=6,column=1) a = par_a.get() e0 = par_tl.get() e1 = par_ts.get() co2 = np.linspace(e0,e1,100) #y0 = par_T.get() Ts = eqn1(co2, a, s, sigma) #sol = odeint(eqn1, y0, e, args=(a,s, sigma)) plt.figure() plt.plot(co2, Ts, 'b') plt.title("Temperature vs CO2 - simple model") #plt.legend(loc='best') plt.ylabel("T") plt.xlabel('CO2-Atmosphere radiation absorption ability') #plt.xticks(np.arange(2),['Low CO2','High CO2']) plt.grid() plt.show() plt.close() # change e #e = (1.0+tlw)/(1.0+tsw) # def clear2(): # my_canvas2.delete("all") # return def plot3(): global sigma, s t = np.linspace(0,3.5,200) y0 = 237 lamd1 = par_1.get() lamd2 = par_2.get() lamd3 = par_3.get() # # Solve the differential equations of Model 2 # sol1 = odeint(eqn3,y0,t, args=(s,sigma,lamd1)) sol2 = odeint(eqn3,y0,t, args=(s,sigma,lamd2)) sol3 = odeint(eqn3,y0,t, args=(s,sigma,lamd3)) es = et(t) Tss = np.linspace(220,350,100) ess= s_shape(Tss,s,sigma) plt.figure(figsize=(10,6)) plt.plot(ess,Tss,'gray', label = "tipping lines") plt.plot(es, sol1, 'coral',label=f"Reaction rate {lamd1}") plt.plot(es, sol2, 'orange',label=f"Reaction rate {lamd2}") plt.plot(es, sol3, 'red',label=f"Reaction rate {lamd3}") plt.title("Climate change with increasing CO2 concentration") # plt.axis('equal') plt.ylabel('T') plt.ylim(220,380) plt.yticks(np.arange(200, 380, step=20),np.arange(200, 380, step=20)) plt.xlabel('e') plt.xlim(0.2,0.8) plt.grid() plt.legend() plt.show() plt.close() return def plot2(): global sigma, s t = np.linspace(0,8,200) y0 = 237 lamd1 = par_1.get() lamd2 = par_2.get() lamd3 = par_3.get() sol4 = odeint(eqn3,y0,t,args = (s,sigma,lamd1,False)) sol5 = odeint(eqn3,y0,t,args = (s,sigma,lamd2,False)) sol6 = odeint(eqn3,y0,t,args = (s,sigma,lamd3,False)) Tss = np.linspace(220,350,100) ess= s_shape(Tss,s,sigma) es2 = et_up(t) plt.figure(figsize=(10,6)) plt.title("Climate Start with high CO2 to low CO2") plt.plot(ess,Tss,'gray', label = "tipping lines") plt.plot(es2[1:], sol4[1:], 'coral',label=f"Reaction rate {lamd1}") plt.plot(es2[1:], sol5[1:], 'orange',label=f"Reaction rate {lamd2}") plt.plot(es2[1:], sol6[1:], 'red',label=f"Reaction rate {lamd3}") plt.legend() plt.ylabel('T') plt.ylim(220,380) plt.yticks(np.arange(200, 380, step=20),np.arange(200, 380, step=20)) plt.xlabel('e') plt.xlim(0.2,0.8) plt.grid() plt.show() plt.close() return def snd1(): path = os.getcwd() os.system(path +"/movie.mp4") my_btn = tk.Button(ch1,text="Graph the Simple Model", command = slide,padx=5,pady=5,font = ('arial', 14, 'bold')) my_btn.grid(row=6,column=0,padx=5,pady=5) my_btn = tk.Button(ch3,text="Graph - increasing CO2", command = plot3,padx=5,pady=5,font = ('arial', 14, 'bold')) my_btn.grid(row=6,column=0,padx=5,pady=5) my_btn = tk.Button(ch3,text="Graph - decreasing CO2", command = plot2,padx=5,pady=5,font = ('arial', 14, 'bold')) my_btn.grid(row=7,column=0,padx=5,pady=5) # var = tk.IntVar() my_btn = tk.Button(canvas2,text="Play the video", command = snd1,padx=5,pady=5,font = ('arial', 14, 'bold')) my_btn.grid(row=0,column=0, columnspan= 4,padx=5,pady=10) root.mainloop()