Paul Goodwin   Paul Goodwin
   Professor of Management Science
   School of Management
   University of Bath
   BA2 7AY
   United Kingdom

  Tel: (0)1225-383594 Fax: (0)1225 826473

  Email: mnspg@bath.ac.uk

 

Research interests

The integration of judgment and models in forecasting and decision making

Research grant

January 2004 to December 2006, Principal Investigator: EPSRC (GR/60198/01) “The effective design and use of forecasting support systems for supply chain management” with Professor Robert Fildes, University of Lancaster. Project web page

External roles

Member of Board of Directors, International Institute of Forecasting

Associate Editor, International Journal of Forecasting

Member of Editorial Board, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making

Member of Editorial Board & Editor of Hot Research Topics column, Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting

Selected Publications:

Books

Goodwin P. (1988) Quantitative Methods Revision Guide, London: Heinemann

Goodwin P. and Wright, G. (2004) Decision Analysis for Management Judgment, Third Edition, Chichester: Wiley

Wright G. and Goodwin, P. (Eds.) (1998) Forecasting with Judgment, Chichester: Wiley

Decision AnalysisForecasting with Judgement

Decision Analysis for Management Judgment Resources for lecturers and students

Webcast

Suspend Your Judgment! Eight Reasons to Trust Statistical Forecasting

Recording available at BetterManagement.com

Papers

1. Goodwin, P. and Wright, G., (1993) "Improving judgmental time series forecasting: a review of the guidance provided by research," International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 9(2) 147-161

2. Goodwin, P. and Wright, G., (1994)"Heuristics, biases and improvement strategies in judgmental time series forecasting," Omega, International Journal of Management Science, Vol. 22 (6) 553-568.

3. Belton, V. and Goodwin, P., (1996) "Remarks on the application of the analytic hierarchy process to judgmental forecasting," International  Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 12(1) 155- 161.

4. Goodwin, P., (1996) “Statistical correction of judgmental point forecasts and decisions”, Omega, International Journal of Management Science, Vol. 24(5) 551-559.

5. Goodwin, P., (1997) “Adjusting judgemental extrapolations using Theil’s method and discounted weighted regression.”, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 16, 37-46.

6. Wright, G. and Goodwin, P., (1999) “Rethinking value elicitation for personal consequential decisions”, Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, Vol. 8(1), 3-10. With commentaries by Fishburn, Saaty, Phillips, Atherton, Bana-e-costa and de Costa-Lobo, Beinat, Buchanan & Henig & Corner, Dallenbach & Nilakant, David, Pearman, Schooner & Choo & Wedley and Tsoukias.

7. Goodwin. P. and Wright, G., (1999) “Eliciting values: A synthesis of views”, Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, Vol 8(1) , 28-30.

8. Goodwin, P. and Fildes, R., (1999) “Judgmental forecasts of time series affected by special events: Does providing a statistical forecast improve accuracy?”, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, Vol. 12, 37-53.

9. Goodwin, P. and Lawton, R., (1999) “On the asymmetry of the symmetric MAPE”, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 15, 405-408.

10. Wright, G. and Goodwin, P., (1999) "Future-focused thinking: Combining scenario planning with decision analysis", Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, Vol. 8, 311-321.

11. Goodwin, P., (2000) "Improving the voluntary integration of statistical forecasts and judgment”, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 16, 85-99.

12. Goodwin, P. (2000) "Correct or Combine? Mechanically integrating judgmental forecasts with statistical methods", International Journal of Forecasting, Vol.16, 261-275.

13. Goodwin, P. and Wright, G., (2001) " Enhancing strategy evaluation in scenario planning: A role for decision analysis", Journal of Management Studies, Vol. 38, 1-16.

14. Goodwin, P. (2002) "Integrating management judgment with statistical methods to improve short-term forecasts", Omega, International Journal of Management Science, Vol. 30, 127-135.

15. Goodwin, P. (2002) "Forecasting games: Can game theory win?" International Journal of Forecasting Vol. 18, 369-374

16. Lawrence, M., Goodwin, P. and Fildes, R. (2002) “Influence of user participation on DSS use and decision accuracy.” Omega, International Journal of Management Science. Vol 30. 381-392.

17. Wright, G. and Goodwin, P. (2002) "Eliminating a framing bias by using simple instructions to 'think harder' and respondents with managerial experience. Comments on Breaking the Frame", Strategic Management Journal. Vol 23. 1059-1067.

18. Roberts, R. and Goodwin, P. (2002) “Weight approximations in multiattribute decision models.” Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, Vol. 11, 291-303.

19. Goodwin, P. and Lawton, R. (2003) “Debiasing forecasts: How useful is the unbiasedness test?”International Journal of Forecasting. Vol. 19. 467-475.

20. Goodwin, P., Önkal-Atay, D., Thomson , M.E., Pollock, A.C. and Macaulay, A. (2004) “Feedback-labelling synergies in judgmental stock price forecasting.” Decision Support Systems. Vol. 37. 175-186.

21. Thomson, M.E., Önkal, D., Avcioğlu, A. and Goodwin, P. (2004) “Aviation risk perception: A comparison between experts and novices”. Risk Analysis, Vol. 37, 175-186.

22 Goodwin. P. (2004) “Providing support for decisions based on time series information under conditions of asymmetric loss.” European Journal of Operational Research. Vol. 163, 388- 402.

23. Goodwin, P. (2005) “How to integrate management judgment with statistical forecasts”. Foresight: the International Journal of Applied Forecasting. Vol 1,. 8-12.

24. Fildes, R., Goodwin, P. and Lawrence, M. (2006) “The design features of forecasting support systems and their effectiveness.” Decision Support Systems. Vol. 42, 351-361.

25. Lawrence, M. Goodwin. P, O’Connor, M and Önkal, D (2006) Judgemental Forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 Years.” International Journal of Forecasting Vol. 22, 493-518.

26. Nikolopoulos, K., Goodwin, P., Patelis, A. and Assimakopoulos, V. (2007)  Forecasting with cue information: a comparison of multiple regression with alternative forecasting approaches.” European Journal of Operational Research. Vol. 180, 354-368.

Forthcoming papers

27. Goodwin, P. “Forecasting how conflicts will be resolved. Is it worth asking an expert?" Interfaces.

28. Goodwin, P., Fildes, R., Lawrence, M. and Nikolopoulos, K. “The process of using a forecasting support system.” International Journal of Forecasting.

29. Goodwin, P., “Should we be using significance tests in forecasting research?” International Journal of Forecasting.

30. Syntetos, A., Nikolopoulos, K., Boylan, J., Fildes, R. and Goodwin, P. “The effects of integrating management judgement into intermittent demand forecasts.” International Journal of Production Economics

31. Lee, W.Y., Goodwin, P., Fildes, R., Nikolopoulos, K. and Lawrence, M. “Providing support for the use of analogies in demand forecasting      tasks.” International Journal of Forecasting.

 

Working papers

Goodwin, P., Lee, W.Y., Fildes, R., Nikolopoulos, K. and Lawrence, M. “Understanding the use of forecasting systems: an Interpretive study in a supply-chain Company.”

Fildes, R., Goodwin, P., Lawrence, M., Nikolopoulos, K. “Producing more efficient demand forecasts.”

Useful link

International Symposium on Forecasting, New York, June 24-27, 2007